Being the best team in the NL West is sort of like being the top bullfighter in Alaska at this point. The Dodgers have re-upped on Raffy Furcal and that is sadly all it takes to make them the semi-favorite in the mild, mild West. There are still plenty of Free Agents to be signed so plenty can and will change before Spring Training but here’s where we stand at the moment:
The Dregs:
San Diego Padres
Further proof that a team can go from pretty good to absolutely horrible almost overnight. The Pads dropped a staggering 99 games last year and figure to actually be worse in 2009. Both Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez will likely find themselves on the block at some point during the season—A Gonz is signed through 2010 with a club option for 2011 and the Pads would probably get the most if they moved him before entering the last year of his deal (similar to what the Rockies did with Matt Holliday). Peavy’s no-trade clause is going to make him harder to move but it’s pretty clear the Pads are going to suck donkeys.
One Step Up:
Colorado Rockies
The Rocks are now without the services of Matt Holliday which hurts. You’ve gotta figure Tulo produces closer to his 2007 level than his injury plagued and abortive 2008 numbers, which should lessen the blow of Holliday’s departure. The Rockies are still the proud owner of Todd Helton’s Corpse which may or may not man first base for them to start the season. Helton is clearly on his last leg and burned me in fantasy last year so I am officially pronouncing him DOA for 2009. As of right now the Rockies have probably the best pen in the league and are capable of throwing Corpas (not as bad last year as you might have thought), Street and Fuentes out there on any given night. The surplus of + arms in the pen should allow Colorado to move them for a piece or two during the season.
The Sexy Dark Horse Sleeper Pick:
San Francisco Giants
Love them this year. The Giants won only 72 games last year but in a division where 85 wins will probably put you in the post season I think they’ve got a shot. Renteria doesn’t have much left in the tank and is roughly 10,000% worse in the field than Omar Vizquel but he should still be able to hit NL pitching enough to make up for his glove. We all know Sandoval can hit and there’s enough sneaky good guys around the diamond to put a few runs on the board for what figures to be an excellent pitching staff built around Lincecum, Cain, a healthy Noah Lowry and a possible breakout guy in Jon Sanchez.
Maybe Yes, Maybe No:
Arizona Diamondbacks
I’d like the D-Backs over the Dodgers if they would take Randy Johnson up on his reported $5MM/1 year sweetheart offer. A rotation of Webb, Harren, Scherzer, Johnson and whoever is going to be pretty dirty. Offensively they’re a work in progress—CoJack, Drew and Upton are all nice pieces but Upton is the only potential superstar, while the indefensible Byrnes > Carlos Quentin deal has proven to be not only a waste of talent but money as well. Pencil in a bounce-back from Chad Tracy and a motivated Unit zeroing in on 300 career wins and Arizona figures to give the Dodgers the stiffest competition.
The Quasi-Favorites:
Your Los Angeles Dodgers
This isn’t so much a ringing endorsement of this hodgepodge by Colletti and McCourt so much as it is a blanket statement on the quality of the competition. Without Manny the Dodgers will be worse offensively, we might as well get that out of the way now. Of course, with the Yankees signing Texiera I think we can safely assume they are out of the Manny market, as are the Angels, leaving LA as an again-likely landing spot. Either way, an infield of Loney, DeWitt, Furcal and Blake should be one of the better fielding squads in the league and with Kemp and Ethier in the outfield we’ve got ourselves some good erasers out there. Russ Mart remains a mystery. After finishing an impressive 4th in % of baserunners thrown out in 2007, Martin regressed to 10th last year and routinely skipped balls down to second. Still, if you watched the All-Star game and saw his ability to block the plate while short-hopping throws from the outfield there’s no questioning his athletic ability; reports from ESPN’s Buster Olney had a few in the Dodger front office questioning his focus during the season.
